Methodology
Where the numbers come from, how the scores are built, and what they cannot tell you.
Understanding our data, calculations, and energy independence methodology
Grid Gorilla exists to provide honest, data-driven insights into global energy systems. We believe that energy abundance is the foundation of economic prosperity and that understanding energy independence is critical to evaluating national security and economic resilience.
Unlike many energy dashboards that show only production or consumption, Grid Gorilla reveals the reality behind the numbers: where energy actually comes from, who controls it, and what that means for geopolitical stability.
Honest
We don’t hide import dependencies or overstate "green" credentials
Data-driven
Every metric is traceable to authoritative sources
Educational
We explain the "why" behind energy policy decisions
Open
Our methodology is transparent and our data sources are cited
Grid Gorilla combines data from multiple authoritative sources to provide a complete picture of global energy systems. All data is freely available and regularly updated.
Our World in Data Energy Dataset
Primary data sourceComprehensive electricity generation, demand, emissions, and fossil fuel data compiled from multiple authoritative sources.
Coverage
- 220+ countries and territories
- Annual data from 2000-present
- Electricity by source (coal, gas, nuclear, hydro, wind, solar, etc.)
- Demand, imports, and emissions data
- Emissions are lifecycle CO₂e, not stack CO₂: they include methane and the rest of the lifecycle, which is why a gas-only grid can carry a higher intensity than a coal one
- Our source publishes no geothermal column. The series behind it is “other renewables excluding biofuel”, which is geothermal plus wave, tidal and some non-biogenic waste. We call it geothermal only for the 18 grids where geothermal accounts for that series — together 97.6% of world generation in it — and “other renewables” everywhere else. Switzerland has 1.04 TWh in the series and no geothermal industry; France’s is a tidal barrage
Underlying sources
- Ember - Electricity generation data
- Energy Institute - Fossil fuel production/consumption
- US EIA - Additional energy statistics
License: CC BY 4.0 - Our World in Data layer, with underlying Ember data also CC BY 4.0
World Nuclear Association & EIA
Uranium productionUranium mining production by country
Key insight: Only ~15 countries produce uranium. Everyone else imports 100%.
World Bank & UNDP
Socioeconomic dataGDP, Human Development Index (HDI), life expectancy, and manufacturing output for our Energy & Prosperity correlations
Metrics
- GDP per capita (PPP adjusted)
- Human Development Index (HDI)
- Life expectancy at birth
- Manufacturing value per capita
Why we chose it
- Authoritative global coverage
- Standardized methodology
- Annual updates
What is Energy Independence?
Energy Independence measures how much of a country’s electricity demand is met by domestic sources versus imported fuels or imported electricity.
Key Principle
Why Energy Independence Matters
The 2022 European energy crisis demonstrated the vulnerability of energy dependence:
- Russia reduced gas exports to Europe
- Electricity prices spiked 10x in some markets
- Industrial production declined
- Political leverage shifted
The Four Calculation Layers
Our Energy Independence Score has four progressive layers of sophistication:
Layer 0: Demand-Based Calculation (Foundation)
All percentages are calculated against electricity demand, not generation. This is a critical design choice that captures electricity imports.
If a country has: - Demand: 100 TWh (what the grid needs) - Generation: 80 TWh (what power plants produce) - Imports: 20 TWh (from neighboring grids) Using generation as denominator: → 80 TWh / 80 TWh = 100%"independent" WRONG Using demand as denominator: → 80 TWh / 100 TWh = 80% max independence CORRECT → The 20% import gap contributes ZERO to score
Key insight: Electricity imported via interconnectors is the most direct form of energy dependence - it's not even fuel-for-generation, but finished electricity controlled by a neighboring grid.
Layer 1: Renewable & Nuclear Baseline
Renewable energy sources are 100% domestic by definition.
Solar → Sunlight falls on domestic land Wind → Wind blows in domestic airspace/waters Hydro → Water falls in domestic rivers Geothermal → Heat from domestic underground Bioenergy → Crops grown on domestic land
Nuclear: Initially counted as 100% independent, but see Layer 3 below.
Layer 2: Fossil Fuel Import Dependency
A country might generate electricity from coal, but where did the coal come from? We use production/consumption ratios from Our World in Data.
fuel_independence = domestic_production / domestic_consumption Examples: Germany coal: 140 TWh produced / 280 TWh consumed = 50% independent Germany gas: 20 TWh produced / 850 TWh consumed = 2.4% independent Norway gas: 1200 TWh produced / 50 TWh consumed = 2400% → capped at 100%
Assumption: We assume the import ratio is consistent across all sectors (electricity, heating, transport, industry).
Layer 3: Nuclear Fuel Dependency
Nuclear plants need uranium fuel. Where does it come from? Only ~15 countries mine uranium. France, Japan, Germany, South Korea, etc. produce zero uranium domestically.
Major Producers (100% independent): Kazakhstan: 43% of world production Canada: 15% of world production Namibia: 11% of world production Australia: 8% of world production Russia: 5% of world production Partial Producers: China: 50% (produces ~half of needs) India: 30% (produces some, imports most) Ukraine: 50% USA: 1% (produces <1%, imports 99%) Everyone Else: 0% (imports 100%) France, Germany, Japan, UK, South Korea, Spain, Belgium, Sweden, Finland, etc.
Step-by-Step Formula
Step 1: Calculate Renewable Contribution
(100% independent, relative to demand)
Step 2: Calculate Fossil Fuel Contributions
(weighted by import dependency, relative to demand)
Step 3: Calculate Nuclear Contribution
(weighted by uranium independence, relative to demand)
Step 4: Sum All Contributions
Step 5: Assign Score Band
Germany (2023)
Score 68.7 — moderateElectricity Mix (Ember)
- Total: 508 TWh
- Renewables: 255 TWh (50.2%)
- Nuclear: 0 TWh (shut down April 2023)
- Was 6% in 2022, 13.3% in 2021
- Coal: 185 TWh (36.4%)
- Gas: 66 TWh (13.0%)
Fossil Fuel Independence (OWID)
- Coal: 140/280 TWh = 50%
- Gas: 20/850 TWh = 2.4%
- Oil: 10/1200 TWh = 0.8%
- Uranium: 0% (no production)
Renewable contribution: (255/508) × 100 = 50.2 pts Nuclear contribution: (0/508) × 0% = 0 pts Coal contribution: (185/508) × 50% = 18.2 pts Gas contribution: (66/508) × 2.4% = 0.3 pts Oil contribution: (2/508) × 0.8% = 0.003 pts TOTAL: 50.2 + 0 + 18.2 + 0.3 + 0.003 = 68.7 / 100
Strengths
50% renewable electricity is fully independent
Vulnerabilities
Extreme gas dependency (imports 97.6%)
France (2023)
Score 20.2 — critical dependencyWait, what?!
Electricity Mix (Ember)
- Total: 445 TWh
- Renewables: 90 TWh (20.2%)
- Nuclear: 320 TWh (71.9%)
- Coal: 5 TWh (1.1%)
- Gas: 28 TWh (6.3%)
Independence Ratios
- Coal: 0% (no domestic coal)
- Gas: 0% (no domestic gas)
- Oil: 0.6%
- Uranium: 0% (imports from Niger, Kazakhstan, Canada)
Renewable contribution: (90/445) × 100 = 20.2 pts Nuclear contribution: (320/445) × 0% = 0 pts ← Despite 72% nuclear! Coal contribution: (5/445) × 0% = 0 pts Gas contribution: (28/445) × 0% = 0 pts Oil contribution: (2/445) × 0.6% = 0.003 pts TOTAL: 20.2 + 0 + 0 + 0 + 0.003 = 20.2 / 100
Why we score it this way
- Uranium dependency is real: France imports 100% of uranium ore
- Supply chain vulnerability: Uranium comes from politically unstable regions (Niger) or geopolitical competitors (Russia, Kazakhstan)
- Educational mission: We're measuring independence, not security
Important Distinction:
- Energy Security: France HAS this (reliable nuclear fleet, diversified uranium suppliers, strategic fuel reserves)
- Energy Independence: France LACKS this (zero uranium mining, zero fossil fuel production)
Norway (2023)
Score 97.4 — energy fortressElectricity Mix (Ember)
- Total: 155 TWh
- Renewables: 148 TWh (95.5%)
- Gas: 3 TWh (1.9%)
Fossil Fuel Independence
- Gas: 1200/50 TWh = 2400% → capped at 100%
- Oil: 2000/200 TWh = 1000% → capped at 100%
Renewable contribution: (148/155) × 100 = 95.5 pts Gas contribution: (3/155) × 100% = 1.9 pts Nuclear contribution: 0 pts (no nuclear) TOTAL: 95.5 + 1.9 = 97.4 / 100
Norway exports huge amounts of oil and gas to Europe, but uses almost none domestically for electricity. They're energy independent AND energy secure.
Japan (2023)
Score 25.5 — critical dependencyElectricity Mix
- Total: 950 TWh
- Renewables: 240 TWh (25.3%)
- Nuclear: 48 TWh (5.1%)
- Coal: 280 TWh (29.5%)
- Gas: 360 TWh (37.9%)
Independence Ratios
- Coal: 0%
- Gas: 0.5%
- Oil: 0.1%
- Uranium: 0%
Japan is one of the world's most energy-dependent major economies. This drives their LNG import infrastructure (world's largest LNG importer), energy efficiency focus, and interest in hydrogen as an alternative.
Kazakhstan (2023)
Score 100 — energy fortressElectricity Mix
- Total: 115 TWh
- Coal: 72 TWh (62.6%)
- Gas: 25 TWh (21.7%)
- Hydro: 12 TWh (10.4%)
Independence Ratios
- Coal: 100% (net exporter)
- Gas: 100% (net exporter)
- Uranium: 100% (world's #1 producer)
Kazakhstan is the world's largest uranium producer but operates zero nuclear power plants domestically. Exports uranium to France, China, USA, etc.
It's critical to understand what the Energy Independence Score is not:
NOT a measure of "good" vs "bad" energy policy
A country with 100% coal from domestic mines scores higher than a country with 100% imported renewables. This doesn't mean coal is "better" - it means the coal country is more independent.
NOT a measure of energy security
| Energy Independence | Energy Security |
|---|---|
| Domestic production | Reliable supply |
| Self-sufficiency | Diversified sources |
| Resource ownership | Strategic reserves |
| Low import ratio | Robust infrastructure |
NOT a measure of sustainability
Fossil fuel independence counts the same as renewable independence. A country running on domestic coal gets the same score as one running on domestic solar.
NOT a measure of electricity prices or grid reliability
Norway is independent AND has low prices. South Africa has domestic coal but frequent load-shedding.
What it IS measuring
- Geopolitical vulnerability to supply disruptions
- Exposure to foreign fuel price shocks
- Dependence on international trade routes
- Leverage other countries have over energy supply
- Electricity import dependency (grid interconnections)
Known Limitations
1. Annual Averages Hide Seasonal Variation
We use annual data (2023 full year). Doesn't capture winter gas shortages or summer solar peaks. Energy independence can vary month-to-month.
2. Sector-Agnostic Fuel Ratios
We assume electricity generation uses the same domestic/imported fuel mix as other sectors (heating, transport, industry).
No publicly available data breaks down imports by end-use sector.
3. Electricity Only, Not Total Energy
Score measures electricity independence only. Doesn't include transport fuels (gasoline, diesel) or heating fuels (natural gas, heating oil). Electricity is only ~20-40% of total energy in most countries.
Why electricity: It's the most data-complete sector and growing due to electrification.
4. One-Year Lag
Our World in Data updates annually, usually ~1 year behind. 2023 is the latest year with complete data (as of 2025).
5. Missing Fossil Fuel Data for Some Countries
Our World in Data does not have fossil fuel production/consumption data for all countries. For countries without this data, we assume 100% of fossil fuels are imported, which may underestimate independence for countries that produce their own fossil fuels.
How to identify: Independence scores marked with an asterisk (*) indicate missing fossil fuel data. This is common for smaller countries and newer territories.
This conservative assumption ensures we don't overstate energy independence when data is unavailable.
6. No Bilateral Trade Data
We know Germany imports gas, but not specifically from Russia vs Norway vs USA. Future enhancement could add Herfindahl Index for import concentration.
7. Nuclear Scoring Is Controversial
Scoring France at 20/100 despite 70% nuclear is provocative. Some will argue enrichment/fabrication capacity should count. We intentionally score conservatively to spark debate.
8. Renewables Hardware Imports
If Germany installs Chinese solar panels powered by German sunlight, is it independent?
We say yes, because the energy source (sunlight) is domestic, even if the hardware is imported. The marginal cost of solar is ~$0/MWh once installed.
Why does my country score so low?
Energy independence is hard! Most countries import significant amounts of fuel. A low score reveals vulnerability but doesn't mean the country is "failing" - it means they're exposed to supply disruptions.
How do you handle electricity imports?
Electricity imports are factored in automatically. The score is calculated against demand, not generation. If a country generates 80 TWh but demands 100 TWh, the 20 TWh imported via interconnectors contributes zero to the score.
This is arguably the most direct form of energy dependence - it's not even fuel-for-generation, but finished electricity controlled by a neighboring grid.
What does the asterisk (*) next to a score mean?
An asterisk indicates that fossil fuel import data is not available for that country. In these cases, we assume 100% of fossil fuels are imported, which may underestimate independence for countries that actually produce their own coal, gas, or oil. This conservative approach ensures we don't overstate energy independence when data is missing.
Why does France only score 20/100 despite nuclear?
Because France imports 100% of its uranium fuel. Nuclear provides energy security (reliable baseload), but not energy independence (domestic resources). See the France example above.
Isn't coal independence "bad" for climate?
The independence score is NOT a sustainability metric. A country running on domestic coal scores higher than one running on imported solar panels. Use case: understanding geopolitical leverage, not carbon footprint.
Why count renewables as 100% independent?
The energy source (sun, wind, water) is free and domestic. Even if hardware is imported, the marginal cost of energy production is ~$0/MWh. The sunlight/wind can't be cut off by foreign powers.
What about strategic reserves?
Not currently factored in. Future enhancement could add points for oil/gas storage capacity.
Do you factor in rare earth minerals for solar/wind?
No. We count the energy source (sunlight, wind) as domestic, even if turbine components are imported. Once installed, the energy is free.
Can I download your data?
Yes! All our source data is open. Here are all the sources we use:
- Energy data (primary):Our World in Data Energy Dataset
- Electricity generation (underlying):Ember Climate
- Uranium production:World Nuclear Association,US EIA
- Socioeconomic data:World Bank,UNDP Human Development
| Source | Frequency | Lag |
|---|---|---|
| Ember Climate | Twice monthly | 2-3 months |
| Our World in Data | Annually (Q3) | ~1 year |
| Uranium Production | Annually | ~1 year |
| World Bank / UNDP | Annually | ~1-2 years |
Data Providers
- Our World in Data - Primary energy dataset combining Ember, Energy Institute, and EIA data
- Ember Climate - Underlying electricity generation data
- Energy Institute - Historical energy statistics and fossil fuel data
- US Energy Information Administration (EIA) - Additional energy statistics
- World Nuclear Association - Uranium production statistics
- World Bank - GDP, population, and economic indicators
- United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) - Human Development Index
Inspiration
- IEA Energy Security Dashboard - Highlighted importance of import dependency
- BP Statistical Review - Historical reference for energy data
- Hannah Ritchie & Max Roser (OWID) - Championing open energy data
License
- Source data: CC BY 4.0 (Ember, OWID)
- Uranium data: Publicly available from WNA/EIA
For reference, here's the complete uranium independence lookup table used in our calculations:
| Category | Countries | Independence |
|---|---|---|
| Major Producers | Kazakhstan (43%), Canada (15%), Namibia (11%), Australia (8%), Uzbekistan (7%), Niger (4%), Russia (5%) | 100% |
| Partial Producers | China, Ukraine | 50% |
| Partial Producers | India | 30% |
| Minor Producers | South Africa, Brazil, Czech Republic, Pakistan | 5% |
| Minor Producers | USA | 1% |
| Everyone Else | France, Germany, Japan, UK, South Korea, Spain, Belgium, Sweden, Finland, Switzerland, etc. | 0% |
Total world production: ~49,000 MT/year. Top 10 producers account for ~99% of world production.